An Integrated Method for Ranking of Risk in BOT Projects

摘要

In BOT approach, the private sector is granted a concession to plan, design, construct, operate and maintain a project in a certain period of time and after that it should be transferred to the government. Risk is the cumulative effect of the chances of uncertain occurrences which will adversely affect project objectives. It is the degree of exposure to negative events and their probable consequences.In this paper, at first the risks of the BOT projects are identified, then we rank the risks based on their severity and effect on project objectives (time, cost, quality, safety and environmental) by two methods, namely FTOPSIS and FSAW. In the next stage obtained results by NGT method are integrated. After wise the occurrence and detection values of each risk are determined by experts and ultimately the risks are evaluated according to risk priority number (RPN) of failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) technique.