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Economic Crisis and Global Governance: The Stability of a Globalized World

机译:经济危机与全球治理:全球化世界的稳定性

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It is difficult to estimate the ultimate effects of an economic crisis that is far from over. Nevertheless, international collaboration during this sharp economic recession has been far more sustained and stable than the course of international cooperation during two previous economic downturns that matched or exceeded its severity: the Great Depression of 1929-33 and the global recession of 1981-82. In both of these earlier cases, economic nationalism grew, and existing modes of cooperation either collapsed or were threatened by unilateralism and corrosive forms of regionalism. The persistence global institutions for economic cooperation in the wake of the current economic crisis bears explanation given this history. Among the explanations considered for this departure from previous responses to economic crisis are: (a) The character of economic globalization. Although global economic integration may have promoted diffusion of the economic crisis; it may also have shifted the incentives of national governments toward more cooperative responses and rendered economic nationalism and decoupling less attractive. (b) Constraints imposed by international economic cooperation. Contemporary international institutions, following the model of Bretton Woods, have combined international constraints with policies to support national economic expansion: policies of economic stimulus, most notably, have been forged as part of international collaborative bargains, not in opposition to those cooperative modalities. (c) The major developing and transitional economies, which led the way in decoupling from the international economy during the Great Depression and bore the brunt of earlier economic crises, have been able to weather the current economic crisis better than many industrialized countries. (d) Each of these possible explanations for the current record of global economic cooperation also points to a shortcoming in current global economic governance that future reforms must address: (e) A more fully globalized economy means that national policies, particularly those of larger economies, will have a more immediate and potentially negative effect on other economies and their well-being. Closer scrutiny of national policies and new means for exercising such scrutiny will be demanded. (f) Although the current mechanisms of global economic cooperation have allowed considerable flexibility for national policymakers in confronting the crisis, the weakness of international constraints also permitted persistent macroeconomic imbalances and lax regulatory policies that produced the crisis. (g) Award of effective decision-making authority in global governance to key emerging economies, such as China, India, and Brazil, has hardly begun. Given the hard stance in defense of national sovereignty taken by these governments, their growing role has ambiguous implications for future strengthening of global institutions.
机译:很难估计远未结束的经济危机的最终影响。尽管如此,在这两次严重的经济衰退期间,国际合作的持续性和稳定性要远远超过其严重性甚至超过其严重程度的前两次经济衰退期间的国际合作过程:1929-33年的大萧条和1981-82年的全球衰退。在这两个较早的案例中,经济民族主义都在发展,现有的合作模式要么瓦解,要么受到单边主义和腐蚀性形式的区域主义的威胁。鉴于这段历史,在当前经济危机之后持久的全球经济合作机构值得解释。在考虑脱离以前对经济危机的反应的解释中,有:(a)经济全球化的特征。尽管全球经济一体化可能促进了经济危机的扩散;这也可能使国家政府的动力转向更加合作的反应,并使经济民族主义和脱钩的吸引力降低。 (b)国际经济合作施加的制约。当代国际机构按照布雷顿森林体系的模式,将国际限制与支持国民经济扩张的政策相结合:最显着的是,经济刺激政策已成为国际合作协议的一部分,而不是反对这些合作方式。 (c)主要的发展中和转型经济体在大萧条期间带动了与国际经济的脱钩,并在较早的经济危机中首当其冲,与许多工业化国家相比,它能够更好地度过当前的经济危机。 (d)对当前全球经济合作记录的所有这些可能解释也都指出了当前全球经济治理中的缺陷,未来的改革必须解决:(e)更加充分全球化的经济意味着国家政策,特别是较大经济体的政策,将对其他经济体及其福祉产生更直接和潜在的负面影响。将要求对国家政策进行更严格的审查,并要求采取新的审查手段。 (f)尽管目前的全球经济合作机制为国家决策者在应对危机方面提供了很大的灵活性,但国际制约因素的弱点也使持续的宏观经济失衡和造成危机的监管政策松懈。 (g)在全球治理中向中国,印度和巴西等主要新兴经济体授予有效决策权的工作几乎没有开始。鉴于这些政府在捍卫国家主权方面的强硬立场,它们日益重要的作用对于未来加强全球机构具有模糊的含义。

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