Obtaining a Practical Model for Estimating Stock Performance on an Emerging Market Using Logistic Regression Analysis

摘要

Having at their disposal information from different sources, invesors should have the ability to identify the main factors which can affect the stock performance for making their decisions. The purpose of this study is to obtain a deterministic model with financial factors that estimates the probability that a company is performant on capital market. The target population is represented by companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange during 2007-2011. The research results were obtained using logistic regression analysis and show a significant and differential impact of financial ratios on the probability of a company to be performant on stock market.