A Study of Dispatcher's Route Choice Model Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

摘要

In this study, we developed a route choice model that considered travel time reliability and traffic impediments, including traffic accidents. Based on evolutionary game theory, we designed the model to identify a route that a dispatcher chooses when considering changes in daily route travel times and traffic impediments using measured data. Evolutionary game theory is a game theory formulated using dynamics, and it analyses the distribution and change of a combination of strategies. A model from Roth & Erev (1995), which was taken as a representative of models that assumed trial and error learning, was used.Using the model designed for this study, we conducted two case studies. The first case study reduced the standard deviation of some routes to 3/4 of the original value, and the second case study reduced the charge of a toll road by half. As a result, the combination of route choice strategies changed significantly.