Senstitivity analysis for spatial simulation of urban growth

摘要

In any model, sensitivity analysis (SA) is a fundamental process to improve the robustness and credibility of the results. Generally, SA is carried out by testing whether small variations in the input parameters could affect the results of the model. More complex techniques of SA have been developed within the field of numerical modelling; however, they have limited application for spatial models, as they do not consider variations in the spatial distributions of the variables included in the model. In this research, an explicitly spatial methodology for SA is proposed. It uses the tools available in a raster GIS environment (Idrisi) and has been tested in a simulation of future urban growth for the region of Madrid (Spain).