The Origin–Destination Matrix Development

摘要

Transport studies are conducted for a better understanding of the actual mobility and for developing transport forecasting models to predict the future transport demand and the changes in travel patterns. Transport planning involves the decision-making process for potential improvements to a community’ s roadway infrastructure. The first transport models used to analyze globally the transport system requirements while nowadays models were rethought as a demand – supply interaction reflecting the correlation between transport and socio-economic development. The transport forecasting methodology use a four stage structure consisting of: trip generation, trip distribution, modal split, traffic assignment. In the second stage of the model, the generated trips for each zone are distributed to all other zones based on the choice of destination. The trip pattern is represented by means of an origin-destination (O-D) matrix. The Growth Factor Model and the Gravity Model are two methods to distribute trips among destinations. The two methods for developing the O-D Matrix are presented and criticized in this paper, showing the similarities and differences between them and highlighting the implications for rigorous determination of future transport demand. A case study is done to emphasize the differences between these models and their implications in carrying out transport studies.