The permanent way components are of key importance for safe operation of a rail way. The country regulations, in particular in Ukraine, specify the operational life limits for the permanent way but they do not define any tool or method to predict deterioration of the permanent way condition over time. The study is aimed to develop a method for assessing failure risk of the permanent way components in operation. There was a method offered to evaluate risk of failure of the permanent way components of the welded tracks, which considers accumulated freight load on a rail section. Each element of the permanent way, such as rails, fasteners, sleepers, ballast layer, accumulates defects and deformations. The accumulation rate is different for the above components and depends on freight traffic. There was probability of failure-free operation calculated for each component for the first time and an integral fatigue index of the construction has been offered which considers freight traffic accumulated load. There was a mathematical failure forecast model developed which allows planning of track maintenance. The model allows to take into account operating conditions of a railway section. The results of simulation are presented in various diagrams.
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