Express risk assessment for the dispersion of aerosols in an urban environment using probabilistic implicit tracking.

摘要

The dispersion or transport of an airborne aerosol, whether the result of pollution or terrorist attack, is a topic of much interest to researchers and governmental officials in the United States. Due to this, there have been numerous efforts to develop accurate aerosol dispersion models utilizing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and Lagrangian Particle Dynamics (LPD) in order to predict how an aerosol-suspended material will propagate in an urban environment. However, the complexity of these models require significant amounts of computational resources and are not practical for quickly modeling an actual event.; In this study, a stochastic simulation of Probabilistic Implicit Tracking (PIT) of particles using Parallel Particle Tracking and Domain Transfer Probabilities (DTP) has been designed. This allows for a dramatic decrease in computational and data storage resources, making it possible to quickly run simulations following an actual release event on commonly available computer systems.