Commentary: Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment

摘要

The “Linda problem” (Tversky and Kahneman, 1983) is arguably one of the best-known examples of how people commit the conjunction fallacy (cited 1100 times in Web of Science as of November 2015). In this broadly recognized experiment, more than 80 percent of participants failed to recognize the conjunction rule, one of the most fundamental statistical laws, which expresses that the probability of both “A” and “B” being true cannot be higher than the probability of “A” alone being true.