The climate changes in the sub-basin of the Oum Er rbia central and the impact on the surface waters.

摘要

Observations and model results indicate that climate trends in North Africa show both drying and warming over the past few decades, according to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. During the last decades, due to changes in climatic and environmental conditions, water resources available in Morocco are decreasing. They are, moreover, subject to extreme cyclical variations and to soaring water demands because of rapid population growth, improvement of living standards, industrial development and expansion of irrigated agriculture. The pressure on these water resources is accompanied by a growing and increasingly serious degradation of their quality. This is found at the level of average of air temperatures that are continuously growing and at the level of precipitation with an average potential of water in the area with a significant decrease in the last forty years. The purpose of this work is to make a study on the impact of climate change on water resources that exist in the basin of the Oum Er Rbia Central, and to give justifiable results regarding the evolution of climate change over time. From the created database, we brought out diagrams, curves and maps of the evolution of climate change that show the results below: The study of the evolution of rainfall recorded since 1934 and the breaks in time series highlighted two methodologically distinct periods: a wet period with high rainfall (1986 - 1971), a dry season and low rainfall (1970/71 to 2007). Observed climatic trends, calculated over the period of 1935-2007 and reported in the study, indicate the following: On an annual basis, changes in precipitation were not significant and varied from one region to another. On the other hand, spring rainfall declined significantly in the northern part of Morocco at a rate of 0.5 mm / day per decade; That the area experienced an average annual rainfall reduction of 70 mm (20%) over this period compared to 1940-1980. The area is a hydraulic region that is already experiencing a water deficit. The sharp decline in water supplies since 1980-2007 (by 40% compared with 1940- 1980) and the increase in demand and water degradation by different causes; The annual average flows measured at the the central Oum Er Rbia stations were reduced by considerable hydrological deficits ranging between 40.8 and 49.5%. Global warming and rainfall regression are added to the intrinsic conditions of sub basins of the Oum Er Rbia Central (especially waterproofing of land and the lack of groundwater reservoir) to increase its vulnerability to water scarcity. This critical situation requires adapting good management methods of meteorological water as the only source of water in this basin.You should leave 8 mm of space above the abstract and 10 mm after the abstract. The heading Abstract should be typed in bold 9- point Arial. The body of the abstract should be typed in normal 9-point Times in a single paragraph, immediately following the heading. The text should be set to 1 line spacing. The abstract should be centred across the page, indented 17 mm from the left and right page margins and justified. It should not normally exceed 200 words.