Application of multiple seasonal ARIMA model in forecasting incidence of HFMD in Wuhan, China

摘要

Background: During the last decades, outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) have been reported for many times in China. The prevention and control of it has become an issue. Presently, there are no specific treatments and specific antiviral drugs or vaccines available against non-polio enteroviruses causing HFMD. That means the risk of infection only can be reduced by good hygiene practices and early medical attention for children with severe symptoms. Therefore, early detection and response using mathematical statistics method during the epidemics will be helpful for policy-makers to generate preventive strategies.