Does the Misery Index Influence a U.S. President’s Political Re-Election Prospects?

摘要

We seek to determine whether a United States President’s job approval rating is influencedby the Misery Index. This hypothesis is examined in two ways. First, we employ a nonlinearmodel that includes several macroeconomic variables: the current account deficit, exchange rate,unemployment, inflation, and mortgage rates. Second, we employ probit and logit regression modelsto calculate the probabilities of U.S. Presidents’ approval ratings to the Misery Index. The resultssuggest that Layton’s model does not perform well when adopted for the United States. Conversely,the probit and logit regression analysis suggests that the Misery Index significantly impacts theprobability of the approval of U.S. Presidents’ performances.