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Impact of Export on Economic growth of Pakistan

机译:出口对巴基斯坦经济增长的影响

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This research paper employed Augmented Dickey- Fuller to determine “impact of export on economic growth” while granger causality test which is statistically hypothesis test was used to determined the direction of causality between the selected variables under consideration whether selected time series is useful in forecasting. Correlation analysis was also deployed to determine the degree of relationship between the selected variables and the result shows that all the variables are highly correlated. The study uses time series data from 1992-2015, data obtained from the World Bank. The study reviles that export has an optimistic and significant impact on economic growth in Pakistan peroxide by GDP. Export was also found to be confidently and significantly impacting to economic growth in Pakistan proxied by GDP. Foreign reserve also has a optimistic and positive impact on economic growth of the country. Research result shows that the overall regression was statistically significant at both 99% and 95% level of confidence. The result of R2 (0.99) shows that the line of best fit was highly fitted. The result of the granger causality test shows that GDP granger causes Import & FDI. The research finds that, growth-export hypothesis is valid in Pakistan context. We therefore recommend among other things, that the government of Pakistan should take some necessary steps to restructure the Import sector so as to improve their contribution to the growth of Pakistani economy. The government should introduce more policies that will adequately boost the export sector of the Pakistan economy so that it will impact more meaningfully on economic growth of the Pakistan; other programs that encourages increase in foreign reserve should also be adopted in other to increase the growth of the economy in the country.
机译:该研究论文采用增广的迪基-富勒(Augmented Dickey-Fuller)来确定“出口对经济增长的影响”,而在统计上假设检验的格兰杰因果关系检验用于确定所选变量之间因果关系的方向,同时考虑到所选时间序列是否对预测有用。还使用相关分析来确定所选变量之间的关联程度,结果表明所有变量都高度相关。该研究使用了1992-2015年的时间序列数据,这些数据是从世界银行获得的。该研究表明,出口对GDP的过氧化物对巴基斯坦的经济增长具有乐观和重大的影响。人们还发现出口对建立以GDP为代表的巴基斯坦的经济增长充满信心并产生重大影响。外汇储备也对该国的经济增长产生了积极乐观的影响。研究结果表明,总体置信度在99%和95%的置信度上均具有统计学意义。 R2(0.99)的结果表明最佳拟合线高度拟合。 Granger因果关系检验的结果表明,GDP Granger导致了进口和外国直接投资。研究发现,增长-出口假说在巴基斯坦背景下是有效的。因此,我们建议,除其他外,巴基斯坦政府应采取一些必要步骤来重组进口部门,以提高其对巴基斯坦经济增长的贡献。政府应出台更多政策,以充分促进巴基斯坦经济的出口部门,从而对巴基斯坦的经济增长产生更有意义的影响;其他应采用其他鼓励增加外汇储备的计划,以增加该国经济的增长。

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