Validating quantitative precipitation forecast for the Flood Meteorological Office, Patna region during 2011a€“2014

摘要

In order to issue an accurate warning for flood, a better or appropriate quantitative forecasting of precipitationis required. In view of this, the present study intends to validate the quantitative precipitationforecast (QPF) issued during southwest monsoon season for six river catchments (basin) under theflood meteorological office, Patna region. The forecast is analysed statistically by computing various skillscores of six different precipitation ranges during the years 2011a€“2014. The analysis of QPF validationindicates that the multi-model ensemble (MME) based forecasting is more reliable in the precipitationranges of 1a€“10 and 11a€“25 mm. However, the reliability decreases for higher ranges of rainfall and also forthe lowest range, i.e., below 1 mm. In order to testify synoptic analogue method based MME forecastingfor QPF during an extreme weather event, a case study of tropical cyclone Phailin is performed. It isrealized that in case of extreme events like cyclonic storms, the MME forecasting is qualitatively usefulfor issue of warning for the occurrence of floods, though it may not be reliable for the QPF. However,QPF may be improved using satellite and radar products.