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The Rise of China and Its Neighborhood Diplomacy: Implications for Japanese Foreign Policy

机译:中国的崛起及其邻里外交:对日本外交政策的启示

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The rise of China is a complex phenomenon, and so are its relationships with the neighboring nations. There is no doubt that its rapid economic growth has generally improved people's living standards and heightened China's international status. It is also certain that this has brought about the basis for the legitimacy of Communist dictatorship as well as basic social stability. However, economic growth seems to have reached a turning point and signs of social instability are increasingly felt. Still, China's growth rate is much higher than other nations. Unless there is political turmoil, China's presence in the region and in the world will continue to increase. It is not difficult to predict that, for fear of the China threat theory, China will try to maintain a cooperative diplomatic posture that emphasizes peaceful development. At the same time, China will continue with its military build-up and will not be conciliatory in the specific conflicts with its neighbors. There is a close linkage between internal politics and external policies, and just like in other countries, the more unstable the domestic situation becomes, the more hardline the diplomatic posture is required to be. Considering such trends in China, Japanese diplomacy needs to decrease the risks and increase the chances by 1) supporting China's indigenous social development and human security, 2) striving to build a democratic regional regime in East Asia, 3) enhancing mutual trust in the area of security while maintaining the alliance with the United States, and 4) promoting dialogue and exchange to increase mutual understanding between the two nations.
机译:中国的崛起是一个复杂的现象,中国与周边国家的关系也是如此。毫无疑问,中国的快速经济增长总体上改善了人们的生活水平,提高了中国的国际地位。同样可以肯定的是,这为共产党专政的合法性以及基本的社会稳定奠定了基础。但是,经济增长似乎已经到了一个转折点,社会不稳定的迹象也越来越多。但是,中国的增长率仍远高于其他国家。除非出现政治动荡,否则中国在该地区和世界上的存在将继续增加。不难预测,由于担心中国威胁论,中国将试图维持强调和平发展的合作外交态势。同时,中国将继续加强军事建设,在与邻国的具体冲突中不会和解。内部政治与外部政策之间有着密切的联系,就像其他国家一样,国内局势变得越不稳定,外交姿态就越需要强硬。考虑到中国的这种趋势,日本外交需要通过以下方式降低风险并增加机会:1)支持中国的本土社会发展和人类安全; 2)努力在东亚建立民主的区域政权; 3)增强对该地区的相互信任安全,同时维持与美国的同盟关系; 4)促进对话与交流,以增进两国之间的相互了解。

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