Luck, Policy or Something Else Entirely? Vietnam’s Economic Performance in 2009 and Prospects for 2010

摘要

Vietnam’s economic performance in 2009 is seen by the Vietnamese government and representatives of the Western donor communities as good, with the effects of the global financial crisis relatively mild. The paper notes a lack of contestation of these mainstream views and locates them within an assessment of major trends in 2009, and medium-term issues. Particular focus is placed upon the policy implications of rural development and the need for a strong rationalisation of the state sector. Remarks upon the political economy of change then permit comments upon interactions between economic performance and gathering social and political concern with the political challenges of transition to so-called ‘middle income’ status, which in many countries has posed novel and tricky problems of adjustment, often requiring major social and political adjustments that have not always been successful. The paper concludes by suggesting that, as in the past, Vietnam’s style of change finds some things easy and others hard, and that this has its reflection in economic policy and performance.