Prediction of Water Consumption in Hospitals Based on a Modified Grey GM (0, 1∣sin) Model of Oscillation Sequence: The Example of Wuhan City

摘要

Water shortage is one of the main factors limiting urban construction and development. Scientific forecasting of water consumption is an important approach for the rational allocation of water resources. Taking the hospitals in Wuhan City as an example and basing the analysis on the characteristics of actual water consumption, we proposed a modified grey GM (0, 1∣sin) model of oscillation sequence. Using the grey theory, the variable weight-strengthening buffer operator (VWSBO) was introduced into this model to weaken the interference of the disturbance term on the data sequence. The actual quarterly total water consumption data for hospitals in Wuhan City during the period from 2010 to 2012 were used to verify the effectiveness and practicality of this modified grey GM (0, 1∣sin) model in predicting water consumption. In terms of the model’s fitting performance, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the modified model was 3.77%, indicating a higher prediction accuracy than the traditional grey GM (0, 1∣sin) model of oscillation sequences. Therefore, the modified grey GM (0, 1∣sin) model we established in this study can provide a scientific reference for administrative departments to forecast water consumption.