The analysis of GM (1 1) grey model to predict the incidence trend of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers in Wuhan City China

摘要

Typhoid and paratyphoid fevers (TPF), systemic emerging infectious diseases, is a serious health problem for society. If the incidence trend of TPF can be predicted, prevention and control measures can be taken in advance to reduce the harm to the people's health.Grey Model First Order One Variable [GM (1, 1)] was applied to predict the incidence trend of TPF with the incidence data of TPF in Wuhan City of China from 2004 to 2015. The original data were acquired from the national surveillance system.The GM (1, 1) model was established as ŷ (t + 1) = 0.88 e^−0.21t + 0.15. The goodness-of-fit test indicated that the precision (degree 2) was qualified (C = 0.40, P = .91). We further compared actual values with predicted values in 2016 and found that GM (1, 1) model we built has excellent performance in incidence trend prediction.Our prediction shows that the TPF incidences in Wuhan City will be slowly decreasing in the next 3 years. It is, however, still necessary to strengthen the comprehensive prevention and control to reduce the incidence level of TPF.