ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AFFECTING FRUIT CONSUMPTION IN POLAND: EVIDENCE FROM A COUNTRY WITH TWO ECONOMIC SYSTEMS IN 1965–2014

摘要

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the longterm changes in total fruit consumption in Poland from 1965 to 2014, and to test the impact of developing trends and the effects of the economic situation on fruit consumption in that period. The analysis suggests that changes in fruit consumption in Poland over the last half century correlate with the characteristics of the economic cycle. Two phases of growth in consumption and two phases representing a downward trend may be identified. The artificial variable (the increase or decrease value) allowed to confirm the existence of cyclical factors. The two methods (HP and MLS) used to assess the changes provided a picture of the activity of these factors. It should be noted that the coefficient of the regression function calculated with the HP is very similar to the one calculate with the MLS, and is R2 = 0.645. These methods may therefore be useful in predicting short-term changes in consumption levels.