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Sequential change-point detection: Laplace concentration of scan statistics and non-asymptotic delay bounds

机译:顺序变化点检测:扫描统计量和非渐近延迟范围的拉普拉斯浓度

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We consider change-point detection in a fully sequential setup, when observations are received one by one and one must raise an alarm as early as possible after any change. We assume that both the change points and the distributions before and after the change are unknown. We consider the class of piecewise-constant mean processes with sub-Gaussian noise, and we target a detection strategy that is uniformly good on this class (this constrains the false alarm rate and detection delay). We introduce a novel tuning of the GLR test that takes here a simple form involving scan statistics, based on a novel sharp concentration inequality using an extension of the Laplace method for scan-statistics that holds doubly-uniformly in time. This also considerably simplifies the implementation of the test and analysis. We provide (perhaps surprisingly) the first fully non-asymptotic analysis of the detection delay of this test that matches the known existing asymptotic orders, with fully explicit numerical constants. Then, we extend this analysis to allow some changes that are not-detectable by any uniformly-good strategy (the number of observations before and after the change are too small for it to be detected by any such algorithm), and provide the first robust, finite-time analysis of the detection delay.
机译:我们考虑在完全顺序的设置中进行更改点检测,当一个接一个地接收观察结果时,必须在任何更改后尽早发出警报。我们假设变更点和变更前后的分布都是未知的。我们考虑具有亚高斯噪声的分段恒定均值过程的类别,并且我们针对在该类别上均良好的检测策略(这限制了误报率和检测延迟)。我们介绍了一种新颖的GLR测试调整方法,该方法采用一种涉及扫描统计信息的简单形式,这是基于一种新颖的尖锐浓度不等式的,其中使用了Laplace方法的扩展,用于扫描统计信息,其时间保持了双重一致。这也大大简化了测试和分析的实施。我们提供(可能令人惊讶地)该测试的检测延迟的第一次完全非渐近分析,该分析与已知的现有渐近阶相匹配,并具有完全明确的数值常数。然后,我们扩展此分析,以允许某些统一策略无法检测到的更改(更改前后的观察次数太小,以至于无法通过任何此类算法检测到),并提供第一个鲁棒性,有限时分析检测延迟。

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