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Bayesian Nonparametric Poisson-Process Allocation for Time-Sequence Modeling

机译:贝叶斯非参数泊松过程分配的时间序列建模

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Analyzing the underlying structure of multiple time-sequences provides insights into the understanding of social networks and human activities. In this work, we present the Bayesian nonparametric Poisson process allocation (BaNPPA), a latent-function model for time-sequences, which automatically infers the number of latent functions. We model the intensity of each sequence as an infinite mixture of latent functions, each of which is obtained using a function drawn from a Gaussian process. We show that a technical challenge for the inference of such mixture models is the unidentifiability of the weights of the latent functions. We propose to cope with the issue by regulating the volume of each latent function within a variational inference algorithm. Our algorithm is computationally efficient and scales well to large data sets. We demonstrate the usefulness of our proposed model through experiments on both synthetic and real-world data sets.
机译:分析多个时间序列的基本结构可提供对社交网络和人类活动的理解的见解。在这项工作中,我们提出了贝叶斯非参数泊松过程分配(BaNPPA),这是时间序列的潜在函数模型,可自动推断潜在函数的数量。我们将每个序列的强度建模为潜在函数的无限混合,每个潜在函数都是使用从高斯过程得出的函数获得的。我们表明,推论此类混合模型的技术挑战是潜在函数权重的不可识别性。我们建议通过在变分推理算法中调节每个潜在函数的数量来解决该问题。我们的算法计算效率高,并且可以很好地扩展到大型数据集。我们通过在合成数据集和实际数据集上进行的实验证明了我们提出的模型的有效性。

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