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Causal Discovery in the Presence of Missing Data

机译:存在缺失数据时的因果发现

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Missing data are ubiquitous in many domains such as healthcare. When these data entries are not missing completely at random, the (conditional) independence relations in the observed data may be different from those in the complete data generated by the underlying causal process. Consequently, simply applying existing causal discovery methods to the observed data may lead to wrong conclusions. In this paper, we aim at developing a causal discovery method to recover the underlying causal structure from observed data that are missing under different mechanisms, including missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR), and missing not at random (MNAR). With missingness mechanisms represented by missingness graphs (m-graphs), we analyze conditions under which additional correction is needed to derive conditional independence/dependence relations in the complete data. Based on our analysis, we propose Missing Value PC (MVPC), which extends the PC algorithm to incorporate additional corrections. Our proposed MVPC is shown in theory to give asymptotically correct results even on data that are MAR or MNAR. Experimental results on both synthetic data and real healthcare applications illustrate that the proposed algorithm is able to find correct causal relations even in the general case of MNAR.
机译:丢失数据在医疗保健等许多领域无处不在。当这些数据条目没有完全随机丢失时,观察到的数据中的(条件)独立关系可能不同于由潜在因果过程生成的完整数据中的(条件)独立关系。因此,仅将现有的因果发现方法应用于观察到的数据可能会导致错误的结论。在本文中,我们旨在开发一种因果发现方法,以从在不同机制下缺失的观察数据中恢复潜在的因果结构,这些数据包括完全随机缺失(MCAR),随机缺失(MAR)和非随机缺失( MNAR)。利用由缺失图(m-图)表示的缺失机制,我们分析了需要进行其他校正才能得出完整数据中的条件独立性/依赖关系的条件。根据我们的分析,我们提出了缺失值PC(MVPC),它扩展了PC算法以合并其他校正。理论上证明了我们提出的MVPC即使在MAR或MNAR数据上也能给出渐近正确的结果。综合数据和实际医疗保健应用的实验结果表明,即使在MNAR的一般情况下,该算法也能够找到正确的因果关系。

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