Modeling the Joint Choice Decisions on Urban Shopping Destination and Travel-to-Shop Mode: A Comparative Study of Different Structures

摘要

The joint choice of shopping destination and travel-to-shop mode in downtown area is described by making use of the cross-nested logit (CNL) model structure that allows for potential interalternative correlation along the both choice dimensions. Meanwhile, the traditional multinomial logit (MNL) model and nested logit (NL) model are also formulated, respectively. This study uses the data collected in the downtown areas of Maryland-Washington, D.C. region, for shopping trips, considering household, individual, land use, and travel related characteristics. The results of the model reveal the significant influencing factors on joint choice travel behavior between shopping destination and travel mode. A comparison of the different models shows that the proposed CNL model structure offers significant improvements in capturing unobserved correlations between alternatives over MNL model and NL model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo simulation for a group of scenarios assuming that there is an increase in parking fees in downtown area is undertaken to examine the impact of a change in car travel cost on the joint choice of shopping destination and travel mode switching. The results are expected to give a better understanding on the shopping travel behavior.