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An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis

机译:集成流模拟和不确定性分析的教育模型

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This paper presents the hands-on modeling toolbox, HBV-Ensemble, designed as acomplement to theoretical hydrology lectures, to teach hydrological processesand their uncertainties. The HBV-Ensemble can be used for in-class labpractices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understandingof hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gainmore insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmeltand snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoffgeneration) are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLABGraphical User Interface (GUI) and an ensemble simulation scheme that can beused for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemblesimulation and model sensitivity. HBV-Ensemble was administered in a classfor both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submittedtheir feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educationalsoftware had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge ofuncertainty in hydrological modeling.
机译:本文介绍了动手建模工具箱HBV-Ensemble,它是理论水文学讲座的补充,旨在教授水文过程及其不确定性。 HBV组合可用于课堂上的练习和家庭作业,以及评估学生对水文过程的理解。使用此建模工具箱,学生可以了解水文过程(例如,降水,融雪和积雪,土壤水分,蒸散和径流)如何相互关联。该教学工具箱包括一个MATLAB图形用户界面(GUI)和一个集成仿真方案,可用于教授不确定性分析,参数估计,集合仿真和模型灵敏度。班级教学和期末项目均在班级管理HBV-Ensemble,学生们提交了他们对工具箱的反馈。结果表明,该教育软件对学生对水文建模不确定性的理解和认识具有积极影响。

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