Using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) and theoutputs from two global climate models, we investigate possible changes inmean and extreme temperature indices and their elevation dependency over theYellow River source region for the two future periods 2046–2065 and2081–2100 under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Changes ininterannual variability of mean and extreme temperature indices are alsoanalyzed. The validation results show that SDSM performs better inreproducing the maximum temperature-related indices than the minimumtemperature-related indices. The projections show that by the middle and endof the 21st century all parts of the study region may experience increasesin both mean and extreme temperature in all seasons, along with an increasein the frequency of hot days and warm nights and with a decrease in frostdays. By the end of the 21st century, interannual variability increases inall seasons for the frequency of hot days and warm nights and in spring forfrost days while it decreases for frost days in summer. Autumn demonstratespronounced elevation-dependent changes in which around six out of eightindices show significant increasing changes with elevation.
展开▼
