The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistichydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. Thisfollowed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty,people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore,research and operational developments have also started focusing attention onways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers.Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and productsfor visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makersperceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU GeneralAssembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which severalcases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented aspart of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers werecollected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of thisexercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis ofprobabilistic forecasts.
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