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A constraint-based search algorithm for parameter identification of environmental models

机译:基于约束的环境模型参数识别搜索算法

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Many environmental systems models, such as conceptual rainfall-runoff models,rely on model calibration for parameter identification. For this, an observedoutput time series (such as runoff) is needed, but frequently not available(e.g., when making predictions in ungauged basins). In this study, we providean alternative approach for parameter identification using constraints basedon two types of restrictions derived from prior (or expert) knowledge. Thefirst, called parameter constraints, restricts the solution spacebased on realistic relationships that must hold between the different modelparameters while the second, called process constraints requiresthat additional realism relationships between the fluxes and state variablesmust be satisfied. Specifically, we propose a search algorithm for findingparameter sets that simultaneously satisfy such constraints, based onstepwise sampling of the parameter space. Such parameter sets have thedesirable property of being consistent with the modeler's intuition of howthe catchment functions, and can (if necessary) serve as prior informationfor further investigations by reducing the prior uncertainties associatedwith both calibration and prediction.
机译:许多环境系统模型(例如概念性降雨径流模型)都依赖于模型校准来进行参数识别。为此,需要观察到的输出时间序列(例如径流),但通常不可用(例如,在未注水盆地进行预测时)。在这项研究中,我们提供了一种基于约束条件的参数识别方法,该方法基于从先验(或专家)知识中获得的两种约束条件。第一个称为参数约束,它基于必须在不同模型参数之间保持的现实关系来限制解空间,而第二个称为过程约束,则需要通量和状态之间具有附加的现实关系。必须满足变量。具体而言,我们基于参数空间的逐步采样,提出了一种搜索算法,用于查找同时满足此类约束条件的参数集。这样的参数集具有与建模者关于集水区功能的直觉相一致的理想特性,并且可以(如果需要)通过减少与校准和预测相关的先验不确定性作为进一步研究的先验信息。

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