Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation (with likelihood based uncertainty estimation)

摘要

A continuous simulation methodology, which incorporates thequantification of modelling uncertainties, is used for flood frequencyestimation. The methodology utilises the rainfall-runoff model TOPMODEL withinthe uncertainty framework of GLUE. Long return period estimates are obtainedthrough the coupling of a stochastic rainfall generator with TOPMODEL. Examplesof applications to four gauged UK catchments are provided. A comparison with atraditional statistical approach indicates the suitability of the methodology asan alternative technique for flood frequency estimation. It is suggested that,given an appropriate choice of rainfall-runoff model and stochastic rainstormgenerator, the basic methodology can be adapted for use in many other regions ofthe world. style="line-height: 20px;">Keywords: Floods; Frequency; TOPMODEL; Rainfall-runoff modelling