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Soft combination of local models in a multi-objective framework

机译:多目标框架中局部模型的软结合

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摘要

Conceptual hydrologic models are useful tools as they provide aninterpretable representation of the hydrologic behaviour of a catchment.Their representation of catchment's hydrological processes and physicalcharacteristics, however, implies a simplification of the complexity andheterogeneity of reality. As a result, these models may show a lack offlexibility in reproducing the vast spectrum of catchment responses. Hence,the accuracy in reproducing certain aspects of the system behaviour may bepaid in terms of a lack of accuracy in the representation of other aspects.By acknowledging the structural limitations of these models, we propose amodular approach to hydrological simulation. Instead of using a single modelto reproduce the full range of catchment responses, multiple models areused, each of them assigned to a specific task. While a modular approach hasbeen previously used in the development of data driven models, in this studywe show an application to conceptual models.The approach is here demonstrated in the case where the different models areassociated with different parameter realizations within a fixed modelstructure. We show that using a "composite" model, obtained by acombination of individual "local" models, the accuracy of the simulationis improved. We argue that this approach can be useful because it partiallyovercomes the structural limitations that a conceptual model may exhibit.The approach is shown in application to the discharge simulation of theexperimental Alzette River basin in Luxembourg, with a conceptual model thatfollows the structure of the HBV model.
机译:概念性水文模型是有用的工具,因为它们提供了一个流域的水文行为的可解释的表示形式,但是它们对流域的水文过程和物理特征的表示形式却意味着对现实的复杂性和异质性的简化。结果,这些模型在再现广泛的集水区响应时可能显示缺乏灵活性。因此,可以根据缺乏其他方面表示的准确性来补偿重现系统行为某些方面的准确性。 通过认识这些模型的结构局限性,我们提出了一种模块化的水文模拟方法。代替使用单个模型来再现流域响应的全部范围,而是使用多个模型,每个模型都分配给特定任务。尽管以前在数据驱动模型的开发中曾使用过模块化方法,但在本研究中,我们展示了在概念模型上的应用。 在此示例中,在不同模型区域与不同参数实现相关联的情况下,演示了该方法。固定的模型结构。我们显示,使用通过组合各个“局部”模型获得的“复合”模型,可以提高模拟的准确性。我们认为这种方法之所以有用是因为它部分克服了概念模型可能出现的结构局限性。该方法在遵循卢森堡HBV模型结构的概念模型应用于卢森堡实验性阿尔泽特河流域的流量模拟中得到了展示。 。

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