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Quantitative historical hydrology in Europe

机译:欧洲定量历史水文学

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In recent decades, the quantification of flood hydrological characteristics (peak discharge, hydrograph shape, and runoff volume) from documentary evidence has gained scientific recognition as a method to lengthen flood records of rare and extreme events. This paper describes the methodological evolution of quantitative historical hydrology under the influence of developments in hydraulics and statistics. In the 19th century, discharge calculations based on flood marks were the only source of hydrological data for engineering design, but were later left aside in favour of systematic gauge records and conventional hydrological procedures. In the last two decades, there has been growing scientific and public interest in understanding long-term patterns of rare floods, in maintaining the flood heritage and memory of extremes, and developing methods for deterministic and statistical application to different scientific and engineering problems. A compilation of 46 case studies across Europe with reconstructed discharges demonstrates that (1) in most cases present flood magnitudes are not unusual within the context of the last millennium, although recent floods may exceed past floods in some temperate European rivers (e.g. the Vltava and Po rivers); (2) the frequency of extreme floods has decreased since the 1950s, although some rivers (e.g. the Gardon and Ouse rivers) show a reactivation of rare events over the last two decades. There is a great potential for gaining understanding of individual extreme events based on a combined multiproxy approach (palaeoflood and documentary records) providing high-resolution time flood series and their environmental and climatic changes; and for developing non-systematic and non-stationary statistical models based on relations of past floods with external and internal covariates under natural low-frequency climate variability.
机译:近几十年来,根据文献证据对洪水水文特征(峰值流量,水文形状和径流量)进行量化已获得科学认可,可作为延长稀有和极端事件洪水记录的一种方法。本文描述了在水力学和统计发展的影响下定量历史水文学的方法论演变。在19世纪,基于洪水标记的流量计算是用于工程设计的水文数据的唯一来源,但后来被抛弃,转而使用系统的轨距记录和常规的水文程序。在过去的二十年中,人们越来越了解科学和公众对稀有洪水的长期模式,保持洪水遗产和极端记忆以及开发确定性和统计性应用于不同科学和工程问题的方法的兴趣。在欧洲进行的46个案例研究的汇编中,排放量经过重建,结果表明:(1)在最近的千年中,当前洪水泛滥的情况并不罕见,尽管最近的洪水可能会超过欧洲一些温带河流的洪水(例如伏尔塔瓦河和蒲河); (2)自1950年代以来,极端洪水的发生率有所下降,尽管在过去的20年中,一些河流(如加登河和乌兹河)表现出罕见的事件重新出现。基于多重代理方法(古洪水和文献记录),提供高分辨率的时间洪水序列及其环境和气候变化,对单个极端事件的理解具有很大的潜力;根据过去洪水与自然低频气候变化下外部和内部协变量的关系,开发非系统和非平稳的统计模型。

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