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Analysing freight shippers’ mode choice preference heterogeneity using latent class modelling

机译:使用潜在类建模分析货运公司的模式选择偏好异质性

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This paper describes a study to improve understanding of the decision-making process of New Zealand firms, freight shippers and agents when making freight transport mode choice decisions. Such studies, despite their importance, are relatively scarce due to issues related to data confidentiality, restraining firms from taking part in such studies. To achieve the objective, we use latent class (LC) modelling, which postulates that firms’ behaviour depends on two components: 1) some observable attributes, such as travel distance and size of operations; and 2) unobserved latent heterogeneity. The latter is taken into account by sorting firms into a number of classes based on similarities in their characteristics. Subsequently, the behaviour of firms in each class is explained by a set of parameter estimates, which differs from the sets assigned to other classes. In this study, data were gathered using stated preference surveys from 190 NZ firms, freight shippers and agents. Based on their freight operations, participants were grouped into: 1) long-haul and large shipments and 2) long-haul and small shipments. Furthermore, as each participant evaluated 18 choice scenarios, the data set contains 3,420 choice records. The results of the LC modelling allow policy makers to design more appropriate strategies and policies for different segments of the population to improve intermodal transport and to attract the largest latent class for both cases. In addition, the LC model indicates that the potential improvement in modal shift, which can be achieved by applying different policy options, varies with both transport distance and the size of shipments. Furthermore, in order to promote sustainable freight transport, one policy would be to increase the reliability of both the rail and sea freight transport services.
机译:本文介绍了一项研究,以提高对新西兰公司,货运托运人和代理商在制定运输方式选择决策时的决策过程的了解。尽管此类研究很重要,但由于与数据机密性相关的问题而相对匮乏,从而限制了企业参与此类研究。为了实现该目标,我们使用潜在类(LC)建模,该模型假定企业的行为取决于两个组成部分:1)一些可观察到的属性,例如行进距离和业务规模; 2)未观察到的潜在异质性。通过根据公司特征的相似性将公司分为多个类别,将后者考虑在内。随后,通过一组参数估计来解释每个类别中的公司的行为,该参数估计与分配给其他类别的集合不同。在这项研究中,数据是使用来自190家新西兰公司,货运托运人和代理商的既定偏好调查收集的。根据他们的货运业务,参与者分为:1)长途和大件货物; 2)长途和小件货物。此外,随着每个参与者评估18个选择方案,数据集包含3,420个选择记录。 LC模型的结果使政策制定者可以针对不同人群设计更合适的策略和政策,以改善多式联运并吸引这两种情况下的最大潜在人群。另外,LC模型表明,通过应用不同的政策选择可以实现的模式转变的潜在改善,随着运输距离和货运量的变化而变化。此外,为了促进可持续的货运,一项政策将是提高铁路和海上货运服务的可靠性。

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