Flood Risk Impact Factor for Comparatively Evaluating the Main Causes that Contribute to Flood Risk in Urban Drainage Areas

摘要

Among the various factors that contribute to flood risk, heavy storms, inadequate storm drainage systems, and the concentration of population and assets have usually been considered to be fundamental factors affecting flood damage. Climate change is also a real threat, bringing heavier and more frequent storms. This study presents a methodology for comparatively evaluating the impact of the flood risk factors using a GIS-based flood damage prediction model (FDPM). The FDPM calculates flood inundation depths using the XP-SWMM routine and monetary flood damages using a flood damage estimation model for various storms and catchment conditions. The concept of flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage and the probability of its occurrence. This study produces a flood risk structure in a risk assessment framework. The method is applied to the Kiba drainage area in Tokyo, Japan. The study gives a quantitative evaluation of the changes in flood risk due to risk factors such as increase in asset values, flood control, and climate change using a flood risk impact factor (FRIF). The FRIF is introduced as an index to evaluate the impact of various sources of increased or reduced flood risk to society.