Development of Flow Forecasting Models in the Bow River at Calgary, Alberta, Canada

摘要

River flow forecasting is critical for flood forecasting, reservoir operations, and water resources management. However, flow forecasting can be difficult, challenging and time consuming due to the spatial and temporal variability of climatic conditions and watershed characteristics. From a practical point of view, a simple and intuitive approach might be more preferable than a complex modeling approach. In this study, our objective was to develop short-term (i.e., daily) flow forecasting models in the Bow River at the city of Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Here, we evaluated the performance of several regression models, along with a newly proposed “base difference” model, by using antecedent daily river flow values from three gauge stations (i.e., Banff, Seebe, and Calgary). Our analyses revealed that using a multivariable linear regression formulated as a function of upstream gauge stations (i.e., Banff or Seebe) and the station of interest (i.e., Calgary) using antecedent flows demonstrated strong relationships (i.e., having r2 (coefficient of determination) and RMSE (root-mean-square deviation) of approximately 0.93 and 14 m3/s, respectively). As such, we opted to suggest that the use of Banff and Calgary stations in forecasting the flows at Calgary could be considered as it would require a relatively lower number of gauge stations.