Comparative performance evaluation of blast furnace flame temperature prediction using artificial intelligence and statistical methods

摘要

The blast furnace (BF) is the heart of the integrated iron and steel industry and used to produce melted iron as raw material for steel. The BF has very complicated process to be modeled as it depends on multivariable process inputs and disturbances. It is very important to minimize operational costs and reduce material and fuel consumption in order to optimize overall furnace efficiency and stability, and also to improve the lifetime of the furnace within this task. Therefore, if the actual flame temperature value is predicted and controlled properly, then the operators can maintain fuel distribution such as oxygen enrichment, blast moisture, cold blast temperature, cold blast flow, coke to ore ratio, and pulverized coal injection parameters in advance considering the thermal state changes accordingly. In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN), multiple linear regression (MLR), and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are employed to forecast and track furnace flame temperature selecting the most appropriate inputs that affect this process parameter. All data were collected from Erdemir Blast Furnace No. 2, located in Ereu{g}li, Turkey, during 3 months of operation and the computational results are satisfactory in terms of the selected performance criteria: regression coefficient and root mean squared error. When the proposed model outputs are considered for the comparison, it is seen that the ANN models show better performance than the MLR and ARIMA models.