The Effect of a Structured Method on Mental Model Accuracy in Complex Decision Making

摘要

Humans do not perform well in complex system. The inherent characteristics in complex systems, like a large number of elements, dynamic interaction, causal feedback relationships and delays significantly lower their performance. Research has shown that a better understanding of the underlying causal relationships of a system, enable subjects to control it more effectively. Former research by Maani and Maharaj (2004) came to the conclusion that the use of a structured method could enable people to gain a better understanding of a system and ultimately enhance their performance. This paper focuses on the description of an experiment to further investigate the relationship of these structured method to performance in a complex task. It describes the design of the experiment, the obtained data and how to analyse it. Emphasise is laid on the explanation of the structured method and on the complex task, which is represented by a business simulation. In addition, the eliciting of the understanding of the underlying structure of the subjects will be discussed. For measuring the comprehension, the mental models of the subjects are elicited and compared to the actual system. Practical implications and future research directions are outlined.