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Empirical Study on the Growth Model and the Division of Lifecycle Phasesabout the Chinese Construction Industry

机译:中国建筑业增长模型与生命周期阶段划分的实证研究

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The construction industry plays a fundamental and pillared role in the national economy. Since the reform andopening-up, great contribution has been made to the modernization and urbanization by construction industry. This papercollected statistics data from 1989 to 2012, analyzing the history, the present situation and the future trend of the developmentof national construction industry by using the Logistic growth model and the Gompertz curve model. The resultsshowed that the actual data of the national construction industry were in good agreement with the two models. The averageannual growth rate of the gross product was 16.88% (according to the constant prices in 1989). However, it has enteredinto the mature phase of the industry life cycle now. Although the gross product will continuously grow over a periodof time in the future, but the extent of increase is gradually taking slow (The inflection point T is in August 2011).Faced with the existed problems of relatively saturated capacity, low-level quality, insufficient awareness of ecologicalenergy-saving, low technical efficiency, little contributions of science and technology, this paper suggests that the governmentshould further deepen the Reform of the system, optimize the industrial structure and standardize the market order.And the enterprises should strengthen the capacity of the capital operation, upgrade the level of the management andtechnology and enhance their core competitiveness. Through these measures, the national construction industry can beprevented from falling into recession too fast and keep its maturity and stability, promoting the transformation of constructionindustry from the "extensive" development mode to "intensive" mode.
机译:建筑业在国民经济中起着根本性和支柱性作用。改革开放以来,建筑业为现代化和城市化做出了巨大贡献。本文采用Logistic增长模型和Gompertz曲线模型,收集了1989年至2012年的统计数据,分析了全国建筑业发展的历史,现状和未来趋势。结果表明,全国建筑业的实际数据与两种模型吻合良好。国民生产总值的年平均增长率为16.88%(按1989年不变价格计算)。但是,它现在已经进入了行业生命周期的成熟阶段。尽管未来一段时间内总产值将持续增长,但增幅正在逐渐放缓(拐点T为2011年8月)。面对产能相对饱和,质量低下的问题,生态节能意识不足,技术效率低下,科技贡献不大,建议政府应进一步深化体制改革,优化产业结构,规范市场秩序。资本运作,提升管理水平和技术水平,增强核心竞争力。通过这些措施,可以防止国民建筑业过快陷入衰退,保持其成熟度和稳定性,促进建筑业从“粗放型”发展向“集约型”的转变。

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