Uncertainty and sensitivity of wave-induced sea surface roughness parameterisations for a coupled numerical weather prediction model

摘要

The impact of wave-induced sea surface roughness (SSR) parameterisation methods on tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts in a coupled numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is investigated by comparing the results of sensitivity experiments. A wind-dependent SSR parameterisation as a control experiment and five wave-induced SSRs parameterised by wave age, wave steepness, wave-induced stress, and input wave age, which are the most commonly used to estimate the air–sea exchange coefficients, are used in our comparative sensitivity experiments. In this study, we clearly show the magnitude of uncertainties given by the different choice of roughness parameterisations. Our results show that the choice of SSR parameterisation has a considerable influence on the atmospheric boundary layer and wave conditions, leading to a significant difference in both the forecast of TC intensity and the wave fields. The air-sea momentum and enthalpy transports are modified by the differences in exchange coefficients between the various SSR parameterisation methods, which result in differences in frictional convergence, and variation in the amount of energy input to the TC, thus changing the TC intensity. This process is linked to the alteration of the wind fields and then the wave fields. Comparison of observation data with the results obtained via several SSR parameterisation methods indicates that wind speed, and consequently energy transfer to the waves, is reduced by increased SSR, resulting in smaller wave heights. In addition, the increased SSR produces enhanced turbulent heat flux and rainfall rates by inducing an increase in thermal and moisture exchange coefficients.