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Parameter and state estimation with a time-dependent adjoint marine ice sheet model

机译:基于时间的伴随海洋冰盖模型的参数和状态估计

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To date, assimilation of observations into large-scale ice models has consisted predominantly of time-independent inversions of surface velocities for basal traction, bed elevation, or ice stiffness, and has relied primarily on analytically derived adjoints of glaciological stress balance models. To overcome limitations of such "snapshot" inversions a?? i.e., their inability to assimilate time-dependent data for the purpose of constraining transient flow states, or to produce initial states with minimum artificial drift and suitable for time-dependent simulations a?? we have developed an adjoint of a time-dependent parallel glaciological flow model. The model implements a hybrid shallow shelfa??shallow ice stress balance, solves the continuity equation for ice thickness evolution, and can represent the floating, fast-sliding, and frozen bed regimes of a marine ice sheet. The adjoint is generated by a combination of analytic methods and the use of algorithmic differentiation (AD) software. Several experiments are carried out with idealized geometries and synthetic observations, including inversion of time-dependent surface elevations for past thicknesses, and simultaneous retrieval of basal traction and topography from surface data. Flexible generation of the adjoint for a range of independent uncertain variables is exemplified through sensitivity calculations of grounded ice volume to changes in basal melting of floating and basal sliding of grounded ice. The results are encouraging and suggest the feasibility, using real observations, of improved ice sheet state estimation and comprehensive transient sensitivity assessments.
机译:迄今为止,将观测值同化为大型冰模型的过程主要包括基础牵引,河床抬高或冰刚度的表面速度的时间独立反演,并且主要依赖于分析得出的冰川应力平衡模型的伴随关系。为了克服这种“快照”反转的局限性?即,它们不能为了限制瞬态流动状态而吸收时间相关的数据,或不能以最小的人工漂移产生初始状态并适合于时间相关的模拟。我们开发了一个与时间有关的平行冰川流模型的伴随物。该模型实现了浅层冰架与浅层冰应力混合的平衡,求解了冰厚度演变的连续性方程,并且可以表示海洋冰原的漂浮,快速滑动和冻结床状态。伴随关系是通过分析方法和算法区分(AD)软件的组合生成的。在理想化的几何形状和综合观测条件下进行了一些实验,包括反演过去的厚度随时间变化的表面高程,以及从表面数据中同时检索基础牵引力和地形。通过对碎冰量对碎冰的基础融化的变化和碎冰的基础滑动的敏感性计算,可以示例性地为一系列独立的不确定变量灵活地生成伴生。结果令人鼓舞,并表明通过使用实际观察,改进的冰盖状态估计和全面的瞬态敏感性评估的可行性。

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