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Parameter and state estimation with a time-dependent adjoint marine ice sheet model

机译:基于时间的伴随海洋冰盖模型的参数和状态估计

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To date, assimilation of observations into large-scale ice models hasconsisted predominantly of time-independent inversions of surface velocitiesfor basal traction, bed elevation, or ice stiffness, and has relied primarilyon analytically derived adjoints of glaciological stress balance models. Toovercome limitations of such "snapshot" inversions – i.e., their inability toassimilate time-dependent data for the purpose of constraining transient flowstates, or to produce initial states with minimum artificial drift andsuitable for time-dependent simulations – we have developed an adjoint of atime-dependent parallel glaciological flow model. The model implements ahybrid shallow shelf–shallow ice stress balance, solves the continuityequation for ice thickness evolution, and can represent the floating,fast-sliding, and frozen bed regimes of a marine ice sheet. The adjoint isgenerated by a combination of analytic methods and the use of algorithmicdifferentiation (AD) software. Several experiments are carried out withidealized geometries and synthetic observations, including inversion oftime-dependent surface elevations for past thicknesses, and simultaneousretrieval of basal traction and topography from surface data. Flexiblegeneration of the adjoint for a range of independent uncertain variables isexemplified through sensitivity calculations of grounded ice volume tochanges in basal melting of floating and basal sliding of grounded ice. Theresults are encouraging and suggest the feasibility, using real observations,of improved ice sheet state estimation and comprehensive transientsensitivity assessments.
机译:迄今为止,将观测资料同化为大型冰模型主要包括与时间无关的基础速度,基底高度或冰刚度的表面速度反演,并且主要依赖于分析得出的冰川学应力平衡模型的伴随关系。为了克服此类“快照”反演的局限性(即,它们无法为了限制瞬态流动状态而吸收时间相关的数据,或无法以最小的人工漂移产生初始状态并适合于时间相关的模拟),我们开发了一个随时间变化的伴随物相依平行冰川流模型。该模型实现了混合型浅层架-浅层冰应力平衡,解决了冰厚度演化的连续性方程,并可以表示海洋冰原的漂浮,快速滑动和冻结床状态。通过分析方法和算法区分(AD)软件的组合生成伴随物。进行了一些具有理想化的几何形状和综合观测的实验,包括反演过去的厚度随时间变化的表面高程,以及同时从表面数据中检索基础牵引力和地形。通过对碎冰量对碎冰的基础融化的变化和碎冰的基础滑动的敏感性计算,可以举例说明伴随变量对于一系列独立不确定变量的柔性生成。结果令人鼓舞,并使用实际观察结果提出了改进的冰盖状态估计和综合瞬变敏感性评估的可行性。

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