HIV/AIDS Scourge and Economic Growth in Sub-Sahara Africa

摘要

This study examines the impact of HIV/ AIDS scourge on economic growth of some selected Sub-Sahara African countries. The three sub-Sahara African regions (Southern, West and Eastern) are categorized into lowest and highest HIV prevalence rate, using the global report of the UNAIDS 2012 data. In each region, the lowest and the highest HIV prevalence rate countries are selected respectively. Thus, we consider a panel of three countries in each category over a period from 1995 – 2012. We used these data to estimate the cross-country level regressions of these two categories, using panel data models. Thus, our results are in twofold: For lowest HIV prevalence rate category, the pooled OLS model was the “best” model. This pooled OLS model indicated that, for one unit increase in HIV prevalence rate, the gross domestic product per capita of countries is expected to decrease by US$23.46, holding all other variables constant. Again for highest HIV prevalence rate category, the fixed effect model was the “best” model. The fixed effect model revealed that, one unit increase in HIV prevalence rate will cause the gross domestic product per capita of countries to decrease by US$9.98, holding all other variables constant. Generally, for a unit increase in HIV prevalence rate, the impact of HIV on the economy is two-thirds larger in lowest HIV prevalence rate countries than that of the highest HIV prevalence rate countries.