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首页> 外文期刊>Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia >On the Estimation of Confidence Intervals for Binomial Population Proportions in Astronomy: The Simplicity and Superiority of the Bayesian Approach
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On the Estimation of Confidence Intervals for Binomial Population Proportions in Astronomy: The Simplicity and Superiority of the Bayesian Approach

机译:天文学中二项式人口比例的置信区间估计:贝叶斯方法的简单性和优越性

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摘要

I present a critical review of techniques for estimating confidence intervals on binomial population proportions inferred from success counts in small to intermediate samples. Population proportions arise frequently as quantities of interest in astronomical research; for instance, in studies aiming to constrain the bar fraction, active galactic nucleus fraction, supermassive black hole fraction, merger fraction, or red sequence fraction from counts of galaxies exhibiting distinct morphological features or stellar populations. However, two of the most widely-used techniques for estimating binomial confidence intervals a€” the a€?normal approximationa€? and the Clopper & Pearson approach a€” are liable to misrepresent the degree of statistical uncertainty present under sampling conditions routinely encountered in astronomical surveys, leading to an ineffective use of the experimental data (and, worse, an inefficient use of the resources expended in obtaining that data). Hence, I provide here an overview of the fundamentals of binomial statistics with two principal aims: (I) to reveal the ease with which (Bayesian) binomial confidence intervals with more satisfactory behaviour may be estimated from the quantiles of the beta distribution using modern mathematical software packages (e.g. r, matlab, mathematica, idl, python); and (ii) to demonstrate convincingly the major flaws of both the a€?normal approximationa€? and the Clopper & Pearson approach for error estimation.
机译:我对从小到中样本的成功计数推断出的二项式人口比例的置信区间进行估算的技术进行了严格的回顾。人口比例作为天文学研究中感兴趣的数量而频繁出现。例如,在旨在限制具有明显形态特征或恒星种群的星系计数中,限制杆部分,活跃的银河核部分,超大规模黑洞部分,合并部分或红色序列部分的研究中。但是,用于估计二项式置信区间的两种最广泛使用的技术是“正常近似”。以及Clopper&Pearson方法“很可能会误解在天文学调查中经常遇到的采样条件下存在的统计不确定性程度,从而导致实验数据的使用效率低下(更糟糕的是,对数据库所消耗资源的使用效率低下)获取该数据)。因此,在这里,我对二项式统计的基本原理进行了概述,并具有两个主要目的:(I)揭示了使用现代数学方法可以很容易地从beta分布的分位数估计出具有更令人满意行为的(贝叶斯)二项式置信区间软件包(例如r,matlab,mathematica,idl,python); (ii)令人信服地证明这两种“正常近似”的主要缺陷。以及用于错误估计的Clopper&Pearson方法。

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