Application of Moran-Ricker model for analysis of Bupalus piniarius L. population dynamics

摘要

Statistical method of analysis of population time series in considered in current publication. This method is based on analysis of dynamics of non-linear ecological model parameter estimations in time, and devoted to investigation of influence of changing of weather conditions on population dynamics. Estimations of model parameters were obtained for all parts (which contains 12 measured values each) of initial sample. For the approximation of sub-samples the well-known Moran - Ricker model (Moran, 1950; Ricker, 1954) of isolated population dynamics was used. This model was used for the approximation of dataset of pine looper moth (Bupalus piniarius L.) dynamics in Germany (total sample size is 58; Schwerdtfeger, 1957, 1968). Estimation of model parameters were obtained with least squares method. Analyses of tendencies of model parameter estimations showed that there are no reasons for rejecting hypotheses about the equalities of regression line angles to zero. It gives the base for conclusion about the absence of serious changing in weather conditions in Germany during considering time interval (60 years).