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Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics

机译:基于模型的缓解流感流行和大流行的学校关闭政策的综合分析

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Author Summary School closure is a non-pharmaceutical intervention, considered for the mitigation of influenza epidemics and pandemics, whose impact and cost-effectiveness are still disputed. We propose the first systematic computational model study assessing the potential impact of different school closure policies. We consider four closure strategies based on school absenteeism: nationwide, countywide, reactive school-by-school, reactive gradual. Mitigation outcomes are highly variable, but under the constraint of a fixed number of weeks lost per student, the optimal implementations of all strategies give comparable results. Gradual and county closures are less sensitive to variations in school absenteeism and thus are slightly more feasible in practice. Our results suggest that health care policy makers may consider school closure as a countermeasure during influenza outbreaks, if put in the condition to properly evaluate the severity of the disease and the subsequent level of effort that a country should be ready to afford.
机译:作者摘要学校停课是一种非药物干预措施,被认为可减轻流感流行病和大流行病的影响,但其影响和成本效益尚存争议。我们提出了第一个系统的计算模型研究,以评估不同学校关闭政策的潜在影响。我们根据学校旷课情况考虑了四种关闭策略:全国性,县级范围内,学校间反应式,渐进式反应。缓解的结果变化很大,但是在每位学生损失固定周数的约束下,所有策略的最佳实施都可以得出可比的结果。逐步关闭和县级关闭对学校旷工的变化不太敏感,因此在实践中更可行。我们的结果表明,卫生保健政策制定者如果处于适当状态以评估该疾病的严重程度以及一个国家应为之付出的后续努力水平,可以考虑将学校停课作为应对流感的措施。

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