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首页> 外文期刊>South East European Journal of Economics and Business >Business Cycle Synchronization in Croatia
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Business Cycle Synchronization in Croatia

机译:克罗地亚的商业周期同步

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摘要

The purpose of this paper is to analyze business cycle synchronization in the Croatian economy using various annualized growth rate variables over a period of eighteen years (1992-2010), de-trended by a Hodrick-Prescott filter, and following the Harding and Pagan methodological procedure in the determination of its turning points. Our conceptual analysis of synchronization is based on the technique of concordance indexes and correlation coefficients obtained by the HAC estimators. The main result of the research shows that there is a high degree of probability that dismissal of employees in the Croatian economy will coincide with the contraction phase in industry. The cyclic phase of growth in job creation in great measure coincides with the cyclic phase of growth in exports and the construction sector, as well as with tourist arrivals. There is an almost perfect synchronization between the cyclic phases of the construction sector and imports. The central conclusion of the paper is that this study can establish stylized facts about the dynamics of Croatian business cycles.
机译:本文的目的是使用Hodrick-Prescott过滤器进行趋势分析并遵循Harding和Pagan方法,使用18年(1992-2010)期间的各种年化增长率变量来分析克罗地亚经济中的商业周期同步。确定其转折点的程序。我们对同步的概念分析是基于HAC估计器获得的一致性指标和相关系数的技术。研究的主要结果表明,克罗地亚经济中解雇雇员的可能性与工业的收缩阶段相吻合。创造就业机会的增长周期在很大程度上与出口和建筑业以及游客人数的增长周期相吻合。建筑行业与进口的周期阶段之间几乎完美地同步。本文的主要结论是,这项研究可以建立有关克罗地亚商业周期动态的程式化事实。

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