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Where have all the gun deaths gone?

机译:所有枪支死亡都去了哪里?

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BACKGROUND. The low number of firearm assaults and overall assault-related deaths in Statistics South Africa's death notification reports is incongruous with other recently released data, including police crime statistics. METHODS. We conducted a review of all gunshot injuries recorded in death notifications from 1997 to 2013, including all cases in which the underlying cause of death was ascribed to cause-specific codes in the 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) that referred to a gunshot injury. RESULTS. We identified 105 694 gunshot-related injury deaths over the 17-year period, an average of 6 217 per annum. The total annual number of gunshot injuries increased from 1997 to 2000, at which point firearm-related deaths peaked at 9 540 recorded cases. Thereafter there was a steadily decreasing trend (interrupted only in 2006 and 2008) until 2011, when 3 793 deaths were attributed to gunshot-related injuries as the underlying cause - a decrease of 60% from the peak in 2000. CONCLUSION. The cause-specific profile for gunshot injury deaths in this study indicated extensive misclassification, which explained the near-absence of these injuries among assault cases. However, the trend in gunshot-related injury deaths irrespective of intent provides further support for the hypothesis that stricter gun control, coinciding with the implementation of the Firearms Control Act of 2000, accounts for this decrease.
机译:背景。南非统计局的死亡通知报告中枪支袭击和与袭击有关的总体死亡人数较低,这与最近发布的其他数据(包括警察犯罪统计数据)不一致。方法。我们对1997年至2013年死亡通知中记录的所有枪击伤害进行了审查,包括在《国际疾病和相关健康问题统计分类》(第10版)中将根本死亡原因归因于特定原因的代码的所有案例( ICD-10)提到枪伤。结果。在17年的时间里,我们确定了105694起与枪支相关的伤害死亡,平均每年6217起。从1997年到2000年,每年的枪击伤害总数有所增加,此时与枪支有关的死亡达到记录的9 540起。此后一直呈稳定下降的趋势(仅在2006年和2008年间中断),直到2011年,当时3793例死亡归因于与枪击有关的伤害是其根本原因-与2000年的峰值相比下降了60%以上。结论。在这项研究中,枪伤致死原因的特定原因表明存在广泛的错误分类,这解释了在袭击案件中几乎没有这些伤害。但是,不论意图如何,与枪支相关的伤害死亡趋势都为以下假设提供了进一步的支持:严格的枪支管制与2000年《枪支管制法》的实施相吻合。

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