Inflation Forecasting: Rewarding Luck Rather Than Skill?

摘要

The Central B ank of Brazil annually rewards the top 5 private forecasters of the long run price index “aiming at improving their predictive ability.” We review the The Central Bank of Brazil annually rewards the top 5 private forecasters of the long run price index “aiming at improving their predictive ability.” We review the evidence of their performance and cannot reject the hypothesis that the forecasters enter the top 5 list randomly.evidence of their performance and cannot reject the hypothesis that the forecasters enter the top 5 list randomly.