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Irrationality Re-Examined: A Few Comments on the Conjunction Fallacy

机译:重新审视非理性:对合取谬误的几点评论

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In this paper, I argue that the probability model used to infer irrationality for the subjects in the famous Linda problem is not appropriate, and I suggest different approaches based on fuzzy reasoning models. My line of argument is two-fold: 1) If the term “probability” is understood properly (mathematically), then the experimenters used the wrong model. 2) If the term “probability” is understood casually (non- mathematically), then alternative models perhaps should be used to justify the subjects’ responses. The objective is to experiment with new ways of looking at irrationality and raise a discussion regarding the relation between irrationality, reasoning errors and logical models that are used as frameworks to study irrationality.
机译:在本文中,我认为用于推断著名Linda问题中受试者的非理性的概率模型是不合适的,并且我建议了基于模糊推理模型的不同方法。我的论点有两方面:1)如果正确地(数学上)理解了“概率”一词,则实验者使用了错误的模型。 2)如果偶然地(非数学地)理解了“概率”一词,那么也许应该使用替代模型来证明受试者的回答是合理的。目的是尝试研究看待非理性的新方法,并就非理性,推理错误和用作研究非理性框架的逻辑模型之间的关系进行讨论。

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