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Temporal variation of seismic parameters in the western part of the India-Eurasia plate collision zone

机译:印度-欧亚板块碰撞带西部地震参数的时空变化

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We examined the temporal seismicity variation in the north-west Himalayas and the adjacent regions in relation to strong earthquake occurrences in the period 1970-2010. The aim was to promote seismic hazard assessment and to show the possibilities of strong earthquake forecasting by means of the FastBEE computer tool. The temporal variation of the seismicity is expressed in terms of three basic seismic parameters: the logarithm of the number of earthquakes logN, the seismic energy released in the mode logE2/3 and the b-value of the earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution expressed by the Gutenberg-Richter relation. Significant changes to relative mean values, forming consecutive relative minima and maxima, of the obtained temporal variation series of the seismicity parameters can be considered anomalies. These anomalies were investigated before strong (magnitude Mw≥5.6.) earthquake occurrences and were successfully correlated with 12 strong earthquakes. The mean time of the duration of the anomalies before the origin time of the impending earthquake were estimated to be equal to 3.3±1.3 years. We conclude that, in the region under study, the established correlations can be useful for the intermediate-term forecasting of strong earthquakes and that the continuous monitoring of the temporal evolution of seismicity by means of the FastBEE tool can contribute to the evaluation of the seismic hazard status in a target area. The available earthquake data and the results obtained indicate that after the beginning of 2006, the temporal variation of the seismicity does not present clear prognostic anomalies. This behavior is compatible with the absence of earthquakes with a magnitude of Mw 6.0 or more in the area examined.
机译:我们研究了西北喜马拉雅山及其邻近地区与1970-2010年期间强烈地震发生相关的时间地震活动性变化。目的是促进地震危险性评估,并通过FastBEE计算机工具显示强地震预报的可能性。地震活动的时间变化用三个基本地震参数表示:地震次数logN的对数,以logE2 / 3模式释放的地震能量和地震震级-频率分布的b值,用古腾堡-里希特关系。可以将获得的地震活动性参数的时间变化序列的相对平均值的显着变化(形成连续的相对最小值和最大值)视为异常。这些异常是在发生强烈(Mw≥5.6)地震之前进行调查的,并成功地与12次强烈地震相关。在即将发生的地震发生之前,异常持续时间的平均时间估计为3.3±1.3年。我们得出的结论是,在研究区域中,已建立的相关性可能对强地震的中期预测有用,并且借助FastBEE工具连续监测地震活动性的时间演变可以有助于评估地震。目标区域中的危险状态。现有的地震数据和获得的结果表明,在2006年初之后,地震活动的时间变化并未显示出明确的预后异常。此行为与所检查区域内不存在6.0级或更高的Mw地震兼容。

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