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Impacts of Atmospheric Conditions on Influenza in Southern China. Part I. Taking Shenzhen City for Example

机译:大气条件对中国南方流感的影响。第一部分:以深圳市为例

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In this study, we analyse the relationship between the occurrences of influenza in Shenzhen, a rapid developing city in subtropic regions of southern China with over 10 million populations, and the vapor pressure (VP), the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants (SO2, NO2, PM10) for the period of 2003 - 2008. Using the data such as the rate of Influ- en-za-Like-Illness (ILI (%)), the concentrations of pollutants and vapor pressure, we show quite different results from pre-vious research conducted in other regions in China which are dominated by temperate climate and with influenza out-break in Winter and Autumn. Our results show that the rate of ILI in Shenzhen reaches its maximum in Summer and minimum in Winter and the concentrations of pollutants were significantly correlated with ILI (%), there are significant positive correlations between ILI (%) and VP which can explain over 25% the variance of ILI (%) variations. Quite surprisingly, both atmospheric SO2 and PM10 concentrations are negatively correlated with ILI (%), this is because acid deposition may limit the spread of disease, the seasonal variations of acid rain in Shenzhen could contribute to the sea-sonality of its influenza. Furthermore, there are some significant correlations between preceding VP and SO2 and PM10 concentrations to ILI occurrence and such connections can be used for ILI predictions.
机译:在这项研究中,我们分析了深圳(中国南方亚热带地区的快速发展城市,人口超过1000万)中流感的发生与蒸汽压(VP),大气污染物(SO2,NO2, PM10)为2003年至2008年期间的数据。使用诸如感冒病(ILI(%))的发生率,污染物浓度和蒸气压等数据,我们得出的结果与在中国其他地区进行的先前研究,这些地区主要是温带气候和冬季和秋季爆发的流感。我们的结果表明,深圳的ILI发生率在夏季达到最高,在冬季达到最低,污染物浓度与ILI(%)显着相关,ILI(%)与VP之间存在显着的正相关,可以解释25 ILI变化的百分比(%)变化。令人惊讶的是,大气中的SO2和PM10浓度均与ILI(%)呈负相关,这是因为酸的沉积可能会限制疾病的传播,深圳酸雨的季节性变化可能会导致流感的季节性变化。此外,先前的VP和SO2和PM10浓度与ILI发生之间存在一些显着的相关性,并且这种联系可以用于ILI预测。

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