New roles for urban models: planning for the long term

摘要

Governments and planners are increasingly exploring the challenges of urban development in the long run – say up to 50?years into the future. This paper investigates the ways in which urban models can be used to explore these challenges. Conventional testing through forecasting is not possible, intuitively obvious because of the uncertainties – technological and otherwise. The alternative is to seek a framework in which a range of future scenarios can be articulated and explored. It is shown that there are features of the original Lowry model that have been under-exploited in the past that provide inspiration for this new challenge, particularly in his approach to land. It is shown that models will be valuable for scenario exploration in both comparative static and fully dynamic modes.